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Jobs, jobs, jobs - where are they going?

We've been getting those trumpeting job announcements out of the Kentucky governor's office for years and years. Over time, we've had the nagging feeling that factory openings and business expansions weren't very evenly distributed across the Commonwealth.

With the stern warning to the reader that this story is not an exhaustive analysis of job trends or a scholarly study, here's what we've found since January 2016. It's a snapshot of the seventeen press releases from the Governor's offices matched up with unemployment statistics for July 2016.

  1. Jefferson County, unemployment rate 4.5%, investment $321 million, 690 jobs:
  • UPS package delivery service - Louisville - adding 300 employees
  • Hogan Lovells, law firm - moving to Louisville - 250 jobs
  • Genscape, energy data gatherer - expanding - adding 80 jobs
  • El Toro, internet marketing - moving to Louisville - 60 jobs
  1. Woodford County, unemployment rate 3.6%, $104.5 million investment, 572 jobs
  • More Than a Bakery, baked foods supplier - Versailles - 310 jobs
  • Lakeshore Learning Materials, educational products - Midway - 262 jobs
  1. Kenton County, unemployment rate 4.1%, $36.4 million investment, 500 KY jobs
  • CTI Clinical Trial and Consulting Services biotechnology - Covington - 500 jobs
  1. Nelson County, unemployment rate 4.7%, $10.5 million investment, 216 jobs
  • Thai Summit, auto supplier, - Bardstown - 216 jobs
  1. Russell County, unemployment rate of 7.6%, $10.5 million investment, 150 new jobs
  • Dr. Schneider Automotive Systems, automotive parts supplier- Russell Springs- 150 jobs
  1. Simpson County, unemployment rate 4.6%, $10.5 million investment, 145 jobs
  • Sumitomo Electric Wiring, automotive supplier, 145 jobs
  1. Magoffin County, unemployment rate of 16.3%, $2.6 million investment, 70 jobs
  • Logan Corporation, custom dump trucks- Salyersville - 70 jobs
  1. Fayette County, unemployment rate 3.8%, $10 million investment, 40 jobs
  • Piramal Pharma Solutions, pharmaceuticals, - Lexington- 40 jobs
  1. Fleming County, unemployment rate of 6.2%, $2.5 million investment, 20 jobs
  • Green Tree Forest Products, wood products, Flemingsburg, 10 jobs
  • A Raymond Tinnerman Automotive, automotive products, - Flemingsburg - 10 jobs
  1. Muhlenberg County, unemployment rate 7.3%, $600,000 investment, 18 jobs
  • Brewco Marketing Group, marketing agency - Central City - 18 jobs
  1. Union County, unemployment rate 7%, $150,000 investment, 10 jobs
  • Pride Industries Inc., architectural building products manufacturer- Morganfield, 10 jobs
  1. Graves County, unemployment rate 6.5%, $1.6 million investment, 8 jobs
  • Power Truss, building materials, - Mayfield, 8 jobs.

Trying to find a pattern of job announcements, geographic, political, economic, has been elusive. We know there are business expansions that are not announced by Frankfort. A local bank in the Purchase has expanded to several branches in Kentucky and Tennessee. A local grocer has added two stores and modernized his original store. Jobs and expansions are happening quietly.

What we read in the above data is that most of the big money and big job increases have gone to the Golden Triangle, the center of the state. From Covington to Lexington to Louisville, unemployment rates are low. It makes some sense. When looking for workers, look to where people live. These three are our largest cities, the population centers of Kentucky. Also in their favor, several of the businesses listed above - pharma, internet marketing, are looking for university connections with well educated potential employees.

Other announcements, like Graves and Fleming, are companies not moving into the county, but expanding their operations. UPS has a history in Jefferson County.

Where does the credit go for new jobs? Does the Economic Development Cabinet recruit new businesses? Or do businesses come to the Cabinet for tax credits?

Before our partisan friends jump up and down with an "Ah ha - Bevin is failing" there is no reason to believe that recent past administrations were appreciably better at bringing in new jobs and new industries. Not since Martha Layne Collins brought Toyota to Georgetown has there been a concerted effort to bring an industry to Kentucky. Collins took some heat at the time for luring Toyota. She was proved right and governors ever since have been trying to duplicate her success.

Having exonerated the Bevin Administration (at least in part) we must point out that the Economic Development Cabinet is an agency without a chief. It would be helpful if the Governor appointed someone as cabinet secretary. At this writing, we haven't seen that press release.

In the seventeen press releases is one county in distressed Eastern Kentucky- Magoffin, one county in the Purchase - Graves. Places that are desperately crying out for help getting new industries aren't getting them.

Counties with unemployment rates of statistically zero won't be able to find new employees living in county. New workers will have to come from somewhere else.

The most glaring example of this phenomenon is Woodford County. Where will Woodford County find the warm bodies to fill those 500 bakery jobs? Answer: they won't find them in Woodford County. Employees will be drawn from rural counties across the state. Job seekers will relocate to Central Kentucky for a job - never to return home. The hollowing out of counties outside of the Golden Triangle will continue.

Is there a coordinated plan in Frankfort to increase employment in areas that need more jobs? If there is, it needs revision or a do-over.

We have always believed that economic development programs guarantee two jobs - the director and administrative assistant.

Nothing in what we've seen here makes us ready to change that opinion.

Editor's Note: After this story was written and before an official governor's press release, Janet Patton reported on www.kentucky.com that three businesses have been approved for tax credits by the Kentucky Economic Development Cabinet:

  • East Bernstadt Cooperage in Laurel County is considering a $20 million dollar expansion, creating 75 new jobs.
  • Bed Wood and Parts, Hopkinsville in Christian County, is considering a $3.72 million expansion which would create 42 jobs over the next 15 years.
  • Graf Brothers Flooring in South Shore Greenup County is expanding. The expansion will cost $1.62 million and create 20 new jobs.

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