Governor Bevin is on the path to be a one term governor and
lose control of the Kentucky House of Representatives
In the election of 2018, control of the Kentucky House of Representatives will be switched back to Democratic control. Why? The simple reason has two parts to it: (1) the Governor and Republican Party will choke on the handling of political power in Kentucky and (2) all Kentucky Republicans must bear on their shoulders the specter of a Trump Presidency.
Timing is everything in this scenario. In four months is Fancy Farm. This one event is the start of all political statewide campaigns. Potential governors and all Kentucky constitutional candidates start here to announce their vision for the state.
Coming up will be the third time for Bevin to be at Fancy Farm. He has yet delivered a true vision for the future of Kentucky. He seems to at the point of speaking, choking up and looking incompetent.
Fancy Farm is Bevin's to lose.
In eight months from now is the start of the 2018 Kentucky General Assembly. This is the real time for "get the vote out" campaign against the Republican Party control of the Kentucky House of Representatives.
New Democratic candidates will have made their intentions to run for local and regional House seats. Most of these fresh Democratic will be ready either at or just after Fancy Farm. There will be more independent candidates running in 2018. These will lean toward progressive candidates.
Governor Bevin is on the move to commit basic mistakes in the next 10 months.
The first major mistake will be his special legislative session on pension reform. This will probably occur in September. He will push for more money for the pension gap. He will try to force a new Kentucky austerity program of cuts in programs and new taxes.
There is the chance that the Bevin Team may throw out the proposal to reorganize state government. Governor Brown did this and the model is in the files for anyone in power who wants to cut the state. Governor Brown reorganized 10,000 state jobs out of existence.
Each state worker fired or eliminated will save the state $100,000 in salaries and pensions.
Kentucky state government has somewhere in the range of 40,000 employees. If the Governor cut 20,000 state jobs from moving 14 cabinets down to 7, a rough savings to the state would be around $ 20 billion a year.
If this doesn't work, Bevin will have a Plan B: new gasoline taxes at the gas pump. Somewhere in the range of $0.20 cents to $0.30 cents is the figure being discuss in Frankfort. That will be his second mistake. (Ask Repubican Governor Louie "Nickel" Nunn what happens when taxes are raised - especially taxes that hit everyone and are easily identifiable.)
All of these options are historically "political bombs" for the Republicans. But, I am not sure Bevin views himself as a "traditional Republican " Bevin acts and sounds like a Tea Partyier drunk with political power.
The question is, "Just how much damage will he damage Kentucky before he is out of office?"
If you have vast political power and misuse it, the power will bite you or destroy you. It all depends on the question, "Are you on the right side of history or the wrong side?"