LOUISVILLE - Earlier today, Alison for Kentucky hosted a press conference call for reporters to hear from Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group on his new poll, which shows Alison Lundergan Grimes ahead of Mitch McConnell, 43-42.
Nate Silver rated The Mellman Group the most accurate campaign pollster in the country. For full audio of the Mark Mellman press call, please click HERE.
From Mark Mellman:
"Alison's positive job ratings as Secretary of State are actually higher than McConnell's as U.S. Senator - six points higher."
"Alison's strength is based on a real image advantage over McConnell, who is seen as getting extraordinarily negative assessments for his performance as United States Senator.'
"When you look at the people that know both candidates, Grimes lead expands significantly. She is at 50% and McConnell is at 41%."
"Bottom line is this is an exceedingly close race...it's a race that will certainly go down to the wire."
"The question that was posed was: am I confident that we got this right? And the answer is yes - I'm completely confident that we have this right."
"We're properly focused on the likely electorate - that's what we're looking at. We're asking people how likely they are to vote, as is typical, but that's the least important of the factors that we're employing. The most important that we're employing is an analysis of each individual's vote history and what that does to their probability to voting."
What Reporters Are Saying:
@WHAS11Joe: After series of polls showing #KySen race trending for McConnell, internal Grimes poll by Mellman Group shows Grimes up 1 [Twitter, 9/10/14]
@ajjaffe: New Grimes internal poll of LVs shows the race about tied, Grimes up 43-42 McConnell: bit.ly/1qhLx1F #KYSen [Twitter, 9/10/14]
@ShaneGoldmacher: Mellman, who called Reid's 2010 win, "The bottom line is we've been right when these public polls have been wrong." [Twitter, 9/10/14]
@BGPolitics: Politico: Internal poll by Alison Grimes shows her up 1 pt over Mitch McConnell (43%-42%). Margin of error is 3.5%. bit.ly/1uIFmlI [Twitter, 9/10/14]
HEADLINE: Alison Lundergan Grimes Has a Small But Impressive Lead Over Mitch McConnell In New Poll. "Lundergan Grimes holds advantages in personal likeability, job approval, and pocketbook issues." [Politicus USA, 9/10/14]
@phillipmbailey: .@MarkMellman says they're confident in their methods and looking at "likely electorate" as much as likely voters. #KYSen [Twitter, 9/10/14]
@phillipmbailey: @AlisonForKY campaign manager Jonathan Hurst says there are areas where they are over performing geographically. #KYSen [Twitter, 9/10/14]
HEADLINE: Grimes internal shows tied race with McConnell."In a conference call with reporters, Mark Mellman expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm's success rate in previous races. Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013, where public polls showed Stringer trailing Eliot Spitzer by double digits but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin, as well as his efforts for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger." [The Hill, 9/10/14]